Ep. 565 The Truth About Inflation with Truflation

Ep. 565 The Truth About Inflation with Truflation
September 19, 2023 #CRYPTO101

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In this episode of Crypto 101 we have Stefan Rust the CEO of Truflation to break down the buzz word everyone is talking about… INFLATION.  Monitoring inflation is important when trading and investing in the markets and Truflation offers a new inflation truth-set to provide reliable financial data for better decision-making. It uses 10 million data points and updates indices daily, offering more comprehensive and up-to-date information compared to traditional indexes updating monthly. Truflation’s secure blockchain infrastructure provides unbiased, verifiable data for the growth and sustainability of business decisions.

 

— TRANSCRIPT —

SPEAKERS

Brendan Veihman, Bryce Paul

 

Bryce Paul  00:09

All righty ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls gather round we got a big episode for you today, this is what I’m going to call the de facto episode on inflation. If you ever were confused about what the heck inflation is, or why it’s here, or how we track it, we’re gonna have really the best guy for you. Not only was he the former CEO of bitcoin.com, Stefan rust is currently the founder and CEO of true flesh. And we have him joining us today on the crypto 101 podcast. We’re gonna bring him on in just a minute. Okay, so hang tight. But first, I want to check in with Brendan V min on the other side of the country, Brendan, how’s your trading going? My

 

Brendan Veihman  00:55

man, hey, the trading starting to go good. I’ve been talking to a bunch of buddies and traditionals they’re actually coming to me and saying, Hey, we’re seeing a lot of fundamental activity between all these ETFs traditionals looking at putting up exchanges, pay pals adding cryptocurrency options, everyone’s starting to get excited again, not just on the trading side with the charts, but also fundamentally in a lot different ways. So you know, as we’ll see in just a second, the future is indeed looking bright, just like Stephens background. Yeah, we’re looking good.

 

Bryce Paul  01:27

Good. Yeah, we’re going up. Your long I take it you’re still long.

 

Brendan Veihman  01:32

Yeah, you know, I’m really optimistic kind of the way that I’ve been looking at it is that maybe the short term is kind of choppy, kind of unknown. Maybe we move up and even down a little bit, but the mid and long term for crypto is really starting to look good. You look at things like the RSI placing consistent higher swing lows on the daily timeframe. And that’s the opposite of what we’ve been seeing from the top of the market where it was putting in lower swing highs from that oversold territory. Now we’re seeing higher swing lows from the oversold territory. So it’s you know, things are starting to really look bright for those longer term outlooks of crypto once again.

 

Bryce Paul  02:09

Absolutely. The technicals are looking good. And I think fundamentally, one of the other you know, big talking points we’re going to hit on today with Stefan, is the Bitcoin halving because if this is an episode on inflation, we got to think about bitcoins monetary policy, and how it is the antidote to the rampant and criminal inflation. That is a hidden tax on wealth and that is exorbitant in countries like Zimbabwe or Lebanon or Syria or Argentina where they have their wealth eradicated on a decade basis. So anyhow, we’re gonna stop ranting, we’re going to shut up, we’re going to introduce our guests because the tension is thick. I can feel everybody in the audience want to hear your voice. Stephen, how are you doing today?

 

02:53

Doing great here. Thanks. Thanks a lot for having me and excited for this podcast and love love preaching to the converted. So

 

Bryce Paul  03:02

absolutely. No, by the way, like, we just gotta say, quick shout out to your your background setup. Tell us a little bit about that. Because that’s just about the coolest look and see that we’ve had here on the crypto 101 podcast, I might have to tell our super producer Tebow to get me some neon in here.

 

03:19

Yeah, so pre COVID. We invested in a little studio, right? So I’ve always believed video is the way forward, you got to build your own media channel, you got to have your own outlets, you got to have your own voice. You don’t want it to adulterated you don’t want it abused. You don’t want to cut short. And so how do we build a studio and one of our guys was very passionate video videographer and wanted to build the studio. And so we painted it all a specific color. And there was at that time and NFT art exhibition. And so I went to that exhibition, and boom, lo and behold, there was the future’s bright, and I’m a big believer, and this is the best time to be alive. There is no greater opportunity for anybody in the world today, if you want to grasp it, right. And if you’re willing to take a bit of risk, and have a bit of an appetite for adventure, this is the time to be alive. We’ve got so many new technologies coming out, we’ve got so much disruption, we’ve got so much change, which all represents a huge opportunity for anybody that really wants to grasp it. And so that’s why I believe the future is bright, and I am super excited to be on this podcast.

 

Brendan Veihman  04:32

Well, I can’t promise you that I won’t steal your background. You know, for the people who are listening in on Spotify, you can’t see the green screen but for those of you that are watching the video version of this, I have this big green screen in the background and all that I’m thinking about is how much I want to just screenshot your background and put it onto the green screen so no promises you might see it pop up in the future. A future episode yeah also.

 

04:55

There I have I have a changing neon lights there that acts Sleep, I can plug into the audio, and it changes based on the oscillation of my Lord. That is definitely a bit overkill. But

 

Bryce Paul  05:12

also Yeah, Brendan, I like that quick shout out to the YouTube channel. We are trying to make our presence known here on YouTube. So if you are on Spotify or Apple check us out. Yeah. But yeah, before we dive in here to true inflation and inflation and having what really got you into crypto, like, how did you become the CEO of bitcoin.com? And you know, why? Why are you here?

 

05:43

I was always a big believer in technology and innovation across technology. I mean, I graduated university, thanks to the internet. I don’t think I would have passed if it weren’t for the Internet gave me a competitive advantage. Mobile came along. I was a mobile entrepreneur built mobile networks and saw the power of Metcalfe’s Law, right the power, the more people connected to a network, the greater the value of the network. And so I then sort of saw that we could do so much more with these little devices on the in our hands, what is possible. And so there was this little software called Java. And Java built a JVM, a virtual machine on these devices. And I joined Sun Microsystems helped them scale JVM two, which was an open source software, scale it to about a $700 million business worldwide, working with handset manufacturers, carriers, etc. But the limitations were always around this walled garden set up and set forth by these mobile carriers until the mobile phone came across that well, the Apple iPhone came across our desks in about 2007. When that happened, all of a sudden data packets on mobile networks were, you know, growing from a 70 kilobyte limitation that the carriers had set all the way up to now you know, 100 gigabytes, a download that you get in the terms of an application itself. And so as I was doing that, I then sort of saw the huge opportunity in these new developers that were going to flourish and grow and build new types of services. And that’s where I built out a developer agency. So I left set up, went back to my entrepreneurial roots, found a developer agency, and we were doing hackathons for some of the world’s leading technology companies 30 a year, anywhere on the planet. And one developer wanted to get paid in Bitcoin. This was around 2012. And so I looked into what what is Bitcoin? I mean, I didn’t know what it was. And then yeah, exactly. Well, now I do, right, yeah. And it was on a Skype call, he was on the other side of the planet. And I figured out I gotta pay this guy somehow. And it was instantaneous. No fees around the world, no middlemen. And that was brilliant, right. And it was on a peer to peer Electronic Cash System. And I was sold from then on in and my hunt for internet and blockchain developers. But at the time, there was only Bitcoin developers. They were all and on, right. I mean, a lot of them were an add on the anonymous sorry, nobody wanted to share their profile necessarily, some did, some didn’t. And we were working with large tech companies, and they all wanted to make sure that the developers was certified. They were identified that it KYC, they had an NDA signed. So we could reveal new SDKs new API’s that were unique to a product that we were about to launch, eg if I’m a tech company, but anyway, yeah. And so I was immediately hooked, grew that. And then I met Roger vere at a conference. And Roger beer had this URL called bitcoin.com, and was looking for somebody to help scale that product. And I said, Yeah, well, you know, and we hit it off. We were having long conversations, we had a follow up further down the road. And one thing led to the next Yeah, I was the CEO of bitcoin.com. We scale we focused on mobile first. So we built out a whole new mobile experience. Education was really important. How do we educate people? How do we on ramp them into Bitcoin? Bitcoin cash Aetherium. And then what were all the other coins available out there? I think avalanche is now it was the next one that we supported. But yeah, the key thing was being able to purchase physical goods and services with your crypto and drive velocity of money. And so instant transactions, we needed to go to a shop to a restaurant and be able to pay instantaneously, no, no fees, no commissions, and changing all of that around. And so we did that and managed to really build out a big network and still active network today. Definitely hugely dampened by this whole COVID shutdowns that took place. And anyway, that’s sort of my entry into crypto and my journey to crypto, we got bitcoin cash up to number four in coin market cap and coin Gecko. And my goal when I saw what was going on in inflation and economic numbers, metrics, the governance provided by the governments was not working. So how do we then bring governance and put that into smart contracts put that onto the blockchain, associated with economic and financial data, so that the governments can focus on the policies, which then get put into governance and smart contracts on these blockchains. And the policy associated with that is adhered to thanks to these distributed node network operators. That was my mission. And I saw that actually being a huge opportunity, possibly even greater than that of just payment rails. And so that’s why we set out to build true inflation.com.

 

Bryce Paul  11:11

That’s awesome.

 

Brendan Veihman  11:14

Yeah, I mean, you mentioned bitcoin cash. Can you tell us more about just like, Were you in charge of launching that? What were the technical reasons behind that launch? Can you just like, elaborate on that?

 

11:26

No, I wasn’t in charge of launching it, it was a fork. It was a fork of Bitcoin Core. So it was a couple of developers that actually went and felt that they could scale is better. The block size was the big debate. There was the block wars, as you may remember, that’s what people were fighting over.

 

Bryce Paul  11:51

It was it was all it was

 

11:53

sacred and block with block a block size, right and segway was approved, with the agreement that the block size was going to be increased subsequent in the next upgrade. And the upgrades at that time, were coming pretty fast and furious. They were, I can’t remember. But they were coming at least once a year, there was an upgrade, and a bitcoin cash, we wanted to go faster. And so there was an upgrade every half year. And so to keep that cadence going, was you know, was holding everybody together. And one of the biggest wallets in the bitcoin cash, you know, sort of arena was the bitcoin.com wallet. And so how were we involved with the bitcoin cash core developers that were working with the miners? To up grade the bitcoin cash software? And at the same time, how do we make sure that all the services that we built up on top of bitcoin cash were compliant, and working in sync with the upgrades that we’ve done if bitcoin cash, but we were, I mean, the innovations that were taking place a bitcoin cash were farm and beyond what Bitcoin Core was doing, which was just resting on the security elements that were developed, and nobody wanted to touch that. And it was destined just to be the gold 2.0, which is great. It serves its function. It’s the backstop for all other currencies. But I think Bitcoin cash, our goal was to build this out as a peer to peer Electronic Cash System. I mean, do you think?

 

Bryce Paul  13:38

Do you think it’s succeeded? Or how do you feel about the project? Now? I’m just curious, because since you’re no longer@bitcoin.com, and

 

13:46

I have a soft spot for bitcoin cash. I mean, I definitely feel we had superfast payment rails, we had amazing fee structures. And we built out an amazing, you know, pos network where you could actually go and purchase goods. And we have I mean,

 

Bryce Paul  14:08

the big point, like point of sale.

 

14:11

Sorry, yes, good, good point. And the Wallet app, I mean, the bitcoin.com app is an amazing app, it’s a great user experience, a lot of information in there, lots of learnings, a great way on a self custodial basis to save your keys, and ultimately your coins that reside and are maintained by the different blockchains. And it’s proof of work. And I think that’s a big difference to proof of stake or pre mined tokens. And I think that’s maybe that also appeals to a bit of a nostalgia in in crypto. But there’s been another fork sense and another fork sense right. So after bitcoin cash with the bsv fork, and then we have the E cash fork after that and Yeah, so I wasn’t definitely a part of the bsv definitely not a big fan of that. But Ecash some of the developers that went to support Ecash. You know, they were pursuing the mission and vision to rewrite Bitcoin and the code base in a modern modular fashion that would allow for more adaptability, and more programmability on top of the Bitcoin protocol. Cool.

 

Brendan Veihman  15:31

So tell us the story of how you transitioned to founding true floatation from working@bitcoin.com.

 

15:39

I mean, that was the government’s show. So we were working tirelessly, we were traveling around the world, I was with Roger and the team of bitcoin.com, we had an amazing team tirelessly 24/7, building out this network with a passion to make a payment network and build it faster than the regulator could keep track of what we were doing. That was working at breakneck speed. But then when ultimately the government shut down the economy and said, You can’t travel anymore, you can’t go to restaurants, you have to wear masks, you have to stay at home. And oh, by the way, we’ll print a whole bunch of money. And oh, we don’t worry, there will be no inflation. No, no, no, no, oh, no, maybe it’s transitory, but we got it covered, we got you covered. You don’t look about it. We’re the grown ups in the room, you’re all little babies, you have no idea what we’re talking about. Because we’re the senior economists that are super educated. And I studied economy in Switzerland. So I was fortunate to have a bit of insight into how all of the money supply and how important that is asset appreciation what that means. And so as a result, I looked under the carpet, you know, it’s like, Oh, my God, what’s going on under here, if they say that, then I realized they printed more money in the last 10 years running up to COVID. And then during that one year, in, whilst COVID was very outbreak, break, the breakout started, then 100 years prior to 2008 combined. So and they’re telling us, oh, don’t worry, no inflation is coming, and you shut down the economy. So there’s no growth in the economy at the same time, you’re providing more money supply into the market. So just by default, I felt something needs it’s going to break. Number two is it was done manually. So they had panels, they were going to the stores, tracking it with iPads manually. Number three, it was updated once a month. Fourth, it was changed. So they go back and work with such stale data, that they have to go back and change six month old reports, based on the data that they’ve received six months later. And so all of those things, I felt this is something that can be improved at least 10x. And if you can improve something 10x Isn’t that our duty to go as an entrepreneur to go and do that improvement. And I sort of looked at Peter TEALS book, and sort of if it’s 10x improvable, and it’s a niche area, you can go after it. And so that’s when I took my hat off and said, I’m gonna sort of switch focus now and go after this.

 

Bryce Paul  18:23

Inflation hat. Yeah, exactly. You know, I’ve been I’ve actually, you know, I see true inflation, get shout shout outs on, you know, other podcasts or even, you know, CNBC sometimes just, you know, people say, hey, let’s contrast CPI, which is the Bureau of Labor Statistics or something like that. And, you know, they’re they’re tracking this, like you said, there’s old stale data. And then they say, but look at truth relations, real time index, it’s, you know, off by a measure of x. So tell us like the difference in like, how does that like that difference come about? Is it just that you’ve got real time? And then if you’ve got real time, you know, why is that not kind of like something that the government has? And how does a private citizen have that access? I guess.

 

19:11

So. Not all the data is publicly available, a lot of the data that we use is publicly available. So private citizens can aggregate that together if they want, maybe not to the depth that we have it and the granularity that we have it and we clean it, but in essence, the government has access to all of this data, it’s just a matter of whether they wanted to go after it and pursue it. We, you know, I

 

Bryce Paul  19:37

can see benefit from the delayed reporting and the revamping and stuff. So it’s like, it’s almost they don’t want this.

 

19:47

I’m not saying that, you know, I mean, I definitely, I mean, I felt that I mean, I feel that I just, I mean there’s definitely you know, there’s I mean, if you look at it, I mean it’s vertically integrated. It’s done by me. It’s like going to You know, you’ve got your exams at school and you know, you’re writing your own score, you know, you’re giving yourself the scorecard, you’re doing the weighting of how the scoring happens. And you’re writing the exam before you even fill it out anyway, right? And so, and then you’re asking yourself, go fill out the exam, it’s sort of feels a bit like cheating. And so we just felt that needed to have an immutable censorship resistant and impartial source of truth. And how do we do that, right, where we’re trying to be as impartial as we possibly can, we’d love to work with the government and help them use accurate data to be more attuned with what is actually happening in the economy, and then work out how we can extract certain elements, but we track 18 million items, we have three price feeds per item that we track, we update it every single day. Not all these datasets are updated daily, because some just it doesn’t matter need to be updated daily. But we update that dataset every single day. And contrast that to 80,000 items on a panel basis. And in some cases, with a nine month time lag. And so the data that we managed to pull together is you know, some in some cases, with some categories, nine months ahead of what more of Labor and Statistics pulls together.

 

Bryce Paul  21:23

That’s pretty crazy. Yeah, it’s almost like as I’m thinking about it, like almost from their perspective, like if they like published real time data on how bad things were like it would just cause more volatility, and the people would just be coming more crazed. So if they lag everything, they can always spin it of like, Hey, that was nine months ago, things are better. Or, hey, that was nine months ago, things are getting worse. We got to do X, Y and Z. But it almost softens the blow to the public. I would think so.

 

21:53

Yeah. And also imagine if you go back and you edit a data point, and then all of a sudden, inflation’s gone from three to 2.5, because you change some of the numbers, nobody reads the 2.5. And nobody cares about the six month old dataset that you’ve just edited. It ends up in page 27. bottom right corner, you know? Yeah, exactly.

 

Bryce Paul  22:15

People just read the headline, right? Exactly. So I know, you mentioned like, money printing, like throughout COVID. Like that was like, you know, the big catalyst to this most recent bout of inflation that not only America, but America is also exporting that inflation, you know, infinitely to other countries actually have it worse America’s the cleanest shirt in the laundry, if you will, when it comes to inflation, but what is it that like, causes inflation? And you know, can you Is there a general statement? Is it literally just money printing by governments? Is there something else afoot?

 

22:53

I mean, in essence, it’s basically the supply of money exceeds the velocity of that money. So the more money in that money, so how quick we exchange money. Got it. So if you know, and there’s there’s there formulas in terms of how that’s calculated, but that the faster more money there is in there. And in order to accelerate the velocity of money, I raised the prices, because I can because you’re sitting on a lot more money, so I can charge prices. So assets start appreciating, so Can some consumer goods and assets start appreciating, so I then take the money out of your, your availability and try to bring that back into circulation?

 

Bryce Paul  23:37

Very interesting.

 

23:39

amounts in simple terms.

 

Bryce Paul  23:40

Yeah, no, that’s yeah, that’s in simple terms. Exactly. And yeah, I think it’s telling that, you know, inflation is, is something that is really affected like us today, you know, higher gas prices, higher grocery prices, higher home prices, and all this stuff. And it’s really scared the government, it scared the Federal Reserve. And so it’s funny, because once inflation, I think November 2021, was the top of the market, interest rates were still pretty much at zero. And the Federal Reserve started talking about inflation, right? And that started getting really, you know, goalkeeper ish about inflation, because a lot of questions that were coming up, and they said, Hey, we’re gonna raise interest rates, and that kind of started to, you know, to fight this inflation that they thought was kind of going to be pesky. And, you know, 12 months later, they’ve got, you know, inflation or they’ve got interest rates 5% higher at a kind of at a velocity that’s never been, you know, we’ve never seen that rate of change of the federal funds rate. So it was pretty, pretty unprecedented. And it caused a an unprecedented collapse in the value of bonds and stocks. Right. And so I guess, like, the thing I think about my question is, the goal was always to get inflation back down to the Feds target of like 2% which is some arbitrary target, maybe we could talk more about how the Fed ever even came up with that 2% arbitrary inflation number, but they have it. And that’s their goal, get back down to it. And we were as high as like 9% at one point. And now true fallacious showing that we’re kind of back to like 2%, or maybe like two and a half percent ish. CPI saying we’re at 3.2. What is it going to take for Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, to stop hiking interest rates or to start cutting interest rates? Sorry, that was a big setup for kind of a one line question.

 

25:34

Yeah, I mean, Jerome Powell, and the central banks around the world have this arbitrary number that they can’t justify why 2% is the magical number. They just believe it’s 2%. And, you know, I’m sort of more in the camp of Bill Ackman where we just don’t, I mean, us a translation, we just don’t believe it’s a realistic goal, to aim for 2% inflation. You know, given that we’re in a world where we’re trying to after COVID, we learned a lot we want to onshore or near shore, a lot of production, a lot of manufacturing, we want to be self sustaining, in terms of food supply, energy supply, that all costs money, that takes time to build out and develop. And as a result, it’s going to require capital investment, capital investment at 5%, inflation at 5%. Interest rate, costs money, and takes time. And as in that interim time period, there’s going to be a limited supply, the supply chains aren’t working, 100%, etc, etc. And so therefore, we’re ultimately going to hit a average number of what we think is anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5%. That’s sort of a realistic inflation number to hit on an annual basis. Long term for the longer term. Yeah,

 

Bryce Paul  26:59

it’s like kind of the Sustainable inflation, right? What does that mean, for like, our dollar or for our assets? We’re, what does it imply? I should say,

 

27:07

I mean, it means that your assets will appreciate a little bit, you know, a little bit more. So I mean, whether you whether we notice our assets going from 2%, to 3%, or more one, that 1%, I don’t think 90% of the population will really notice a big difference. I think at the bigger magnitude level, it might make a significant have a bigger impact. However, it just just economically, I think goods will become more expensive, the cost of innovation will become more expensive. I cannot build one huge chip manufacturer, and supply all of the equipment from that single source, where I have economies of scale, I can have all of my r&d, go to feed and bring down the unit cost of anything I build off the back of that r&d. Now, I’m going to have five companies in five different geographies, all doing the same sort of thing, and building similar equivalent elements that are all going to have different factories, they’re not going to be able to leverage the r&d spent into unit costs that are going to scale as big as as that maybe that will happen again, over time, but due to supply chain issues due to jurisdictional issues, legal issues, national concerns, these things won’t roll out in that favor. And so goods are just going to be getting a little bit more expensive, every single year again. And by the way, inflation, right. So today, we have two and a half percent inflation. Bear in mind, a year ago, today, we had 12% inflation. So if you combine two years together, that’s 15% inflation. So the cost of your eggs are 15% more, maybe you actually read more, because eggs might be a unique category, but but your eggs in on average, everything you spend is 15% more expensive, and you feel that in your overall household expenditure. And that’s what we wanted to and we resonated with that. And I think that’s when our timing to market was perfect with the accurate reflection of what people were feeling at the storefronts.

 

Bryce Paul  29:21

It’s incredible. Now, just just a comment, what you described really makes me feel like it’s structural, right? It’s structural inflation that is now kind of embedded in what was once this really globally connected citizenry, this whole you know, friendly, sort of world where whatever NAFTA or whatever, like, I don’t know if that’s the right thing, but like all the globalization and stuff and now COVID And the tensions in Russia and communism, kind of whatever on the rise, like it’s like really started to affect supply chains, which is, you know, causing structure All inflation. So you laid it out, you know, very, very presently. And I’ve never really thought about it that way. But I feel like you know, Brennan, do you feel like this kind of comes into bitcoin in some way? Do you think this relates?

 

Brendan Veihman  30:13

Yeah, you know, I think it does. And with the halving coming up, people have a lot of questions like, how will this tie into crypto?

 

30:24

Yeah, I mean, you know, crypto, a lot of the currencies in crypto have an emission schedule, right? Even Bitcoin they have an emission schedule, you know, there’s a havening Coming, coming. And when the havening comes, then you know, that the rewards drops by 50%. Right? And what does that mean, there’s a less supply coming into the market. And that means that, you know, ultimately inflation drops, right. And so it gives time for consumption. But you know, the plant emissions coming into the market and most tokens Aetherium has their their I can’t remember the name of the site, they have a site where you can go and see how much is actually being burned? Or how much is new believe ultrasound money. Exactly. That’s it, ultrasound money. Thank you, that’s perfect. So check that out, right, you can actually see alive you have that transparency, how much money is being minted, and how much is being burned. So you actually see the central bank at work, if you will, and the central bank being a network of node operators, and a lot of other currencies, they have an emission schedule, you know, you could argue that it’s maybe too fast, it’s in five years, you emit all of your coins. I think, actually, in this day and age, given how many different currencies are out there, how many different blockchains are out there before crypto really picks up that five years is maybe a bit too aggressive, we should extend that emission schedule. However, Treasury can step in and just hold back it can burn it can can add it to liquidity or do whatever it wants. But there you have an element of management of inflation. And you know, you see countries we were talking about it earlier, Turkey, Argentina, right? What was this happened that just happened just the other day, or today, the yesterday the Argentinian you know, there was a, an elected candidate elect, who is now going to be the prime minister of Argentina, who’s super pro Bitcoin hates central banks, and wants to see Bitcoin as the means of money and Aetherium to by the way, when he talks about this being the means of exchange, why was money created, money was created for people to exchange goods and services, and simplify that exchange of goods and services by giving it a value. And that value was going to be accepted as a benchmark that people could accept and immediately do a great trade and would reduce friction and increase the velocity of trade. And money is lost that since central banks have taken over monies lost, that it’s now super hard to get access to your money, you have to do KYC, Kyp, if you want to send somebody more than $200 Oh, you have to say, Why are you giving that money? Person money? I mean, it’s like, why do I need to do all of that I’ve hard earned money. And you know, that’s the purpose of money. And it limits trade means reduces growth, loses prosperity, and reduces hope in the population. And we don’t want to hurt we want to live in a hopeful environment where we’re super excited, because the future is bright.

 

Brendan Veihman  33:33

Yeah, yeah. And I mean, we’ve seen crypto companies. I mean, look at Coinbase look at by Nance recently, like they’ve been really under fire, especially when it comes to the SEC. I mean, Bryce, would you agree speaking of Hope list?

 

33:47

Yeah, I mean, what I mean, they’ve, they’ve everything Coinbase done everything. In the filing process. They spent millions, they spent months if not years, filing the documentation, getting accountant, auditors, lawyers, ready and preparing all of these documents that they would then submit to the SEC to get the final stamp of approval, which you could argue what was the productivity gains of all of those documents of all of those lawyers, accountants, auditors, etc. And only to then find out once they’re listed a year later, up your bad file, you know, I’m suing you even though incremental change of their business. I’d argue maybe you could argue that maybe 10 20% of their business has changed. In terms of since the IRS filings they would argue very little has changed nothing substantial. Yeah, so it’s super sad to see why is the SEC doing this and why are the regulators not allowing innovation not allowing growth, not facilitating, and, yeah, you know, yeah, I don’t know providing liquidity to providing flu. It led to this innovation and this new opportunity.

 

Brendan Veihman  35:04

You know, I think that’s the most ironic and comical part about all of this is that the very group that approved Coinbase to go as a publicly traded company is now this same group saying, You guys aren’t regulated when they were the ones who gave Coinbase the all clear saying that they were regulated in the first place. It just, it seems like an oxymoron.

 

Bryce Paul  35:27

Very Kafka esque.

 

35:30

Very, I mean, and I think, you know, I mean, what they’re doing to XRP, the choke, point, 2.0. There’s definitely a greater gameplan here. And it’s really to try and control you know, and the funny thing is, finance had the B USD, which was the stable coin, pegged to the US dollar, by the way, and managed not by themselves, but by Pax us. And PayPal just announced the launch of their stable coin, right? And guess who that’s managed by Paxos?

 

Bryce Paul  36:04

Right? That’s what I thought was ironic.

 

36:07

That’s legit, but the other ones not legit. I mean, why wouldn’t you want to be the guardian of the world of all stable coins, all digital currencies, that would be such a great position to be in. And given, you know, the US dollar is 87% of worldwide trade is denominated in US dollar, it would be such a great position to be the guardian of such an opportunity, and have digital currencies built off the US dollar even more. So.

 

Bryce Paul  36:38

Yeah, it’s, it’s just nuts. And I guess my question is like, does this leave some significant chinks in the armor of America’s you know, innovation and sort of technological development chops? Does it leave a chink in that armor and maybe give opportunity to competitive countries?

 

36:57

Oh, definitely opens the window. Right. I mean, I mean, Hong Kong

 

Bryce Paul  37:00

is launching Hong Kong.

 

37:03

Dubai is booming. Everybody’s going to Dubai. Right. All the cities that are you look at Ireland is a big hub that’s booming. You’ve got Lisbon that’s booming. You got all these little countries that are booming, but nothing to the I mean, I just think it’s it’s a administration issue. Right. It’s an administration issue. I think when, you know, the powers change in a couple year in a year’s time, you know, what will it look like? Then will the landscape be very different next year, we’re up for elections? You know, let’s see how the landscape changes, right? I mean, and I think we can expect to see some significant changes. And the direction will be much more, hopefully, will be much more innovative, and will be much more, the incentives will be structured to reward the innovators and the entrepreneurs. And the people pursuing growth versus today. It rewards the bureaucrats, the lawyers, the accountants, and the blocking of, you know, the not the blocking, necessarily, but building out toll toll booths along the way, and not letting cars drive on the highways, and the cars being the new companies and startups. And

 

Brendan Veihman  38:22

so as we move into the final quarter of this year, what is your prediction for rate cuts, and the talks of pivots are all over the place? I mean, obviously, no one has a crystal ball. We can’t hold out this magical ball and say this is what’s going to happen. But we at least have an idea or an expectation of what could be to come.

 

38:44

I mean, yeah, I think I don’t think we’ll see an interest rate cut. That’s for sure. If anything, we’re gonna see rate hikes. I think in September, we’ll see the interest rates continue to go up by how much I think that’s that’s a bigger debate. But I think you will see a rise you’ve already seen 3.2% interest rate inflation bump from the previous month. And I think in September we’ll see another little bump. You know, people have been on holiday they’ve been rich revenge, traveling, revenge

 

Brendan Veihman  39:19

events traveling.

 

39:23

Revenge spending is whether what we call it Yeah. Yeah, so I think that will result in an increase hospital hotel sorry, non hospitals, hotels, restaurants have seen higher than usual or pre COVID. booking status is the rates are higher than they were during the pre COVID environment. Airlines are full. could just go to the airports I mean, you can see it you can feel it. It’s busy. People are out and about and you And why would we worry, you know, unemployment is super low. And so good quality jobs are going to start, you know, are going to start demanding, or candidates for good high quality jobs are gonna start demanding more pay. And what does that look like? How does that balance it out? Factories are going to start deploying robotics if I’m building a new factory onshoring car manufacturing in the US again? Am I going to hire a lot of people? Or am I going to install robots that pay you know that that have an ROI of nine months? You have no

 

Bryce Paul  40:41

breaks? No lunch breaks?

 

40:43

Exactly, exactly. Seven I don’t want to go back to a factory work in a factory. I’m enjoying my you know, my beautiful, you know, neon lights in the background? air conditioned environment and a nice microphone and behind the computer screen.

 

Bryce Paul  41:03

Yeah, no, I love it. No, I’m not going back to the factory. I ain’t going back. But no, no, it also just, you know, kind of enclosing, you know, inflation, you know, probably like I like your hot take of it’s probably going to run a little hotter for a little longer, probably going to cause interest rates to, you know, continue to remain higher for longer. And, you know, asset prices will continue to probably rise. I like it and kind of just, you know, closing question just in light of all this. Like we said, inflation kind of being all screwy. It’s the perfect backdrop for the Bitcoin halving. Do you have any, you know, which kind of flies in the face of all this inflation? Do you have any sort of like projections, timelines, price points, hot takes on the price of BTC. So I,

 

41:52

I mean, I don’t have I won’t give you a price on that. I mean, there’s so many predictions out there, or the only thing is, I will tell you that I am 99% of my asset base is in crypto. There we go. And I believe in sound money, I believe in transparent money, censorship resistant, and actually, it’s even more user friendly to use a self custodial wallet than it is to use a bank account and try to send money to somebody on the other end of the continent, on the other end of the country, and someone on the other end of the world.

 

Bryce Paul  42:30

Seriously, no, I completely, I completely agree. I always call like money, or crypto money at the speed of life. Because sometimes, you know, it’s, you know, in different countries sending money that gets caught different bank branches, it gets stopped at the border or whatever, right, your bank throttles it. And sometimes you really need a reliable, you know, you need reliable funds, right? And so that’s what crypto is.

 

42:59

And you want to be able to take it with you, right, that portability element, you’re gonna carry a logs of gold with you.

 

Brendan Veihman  43:07

And I just want to agree to that, because people come and sometimes they complain, they go, oh, you know, crypto can be expensive to send. I had to go and do a wire transfer yesterday to get a house. And they told me it was gonna cost 30 bucks, like talk about expensive, I’m not I’m not spending 30 bucks on a Bitcoin transfer. I’m not even spending that when a theory is hot. And gas fees are private or high. I’m not spending 30 bucks on a transfer, like a lot of the time. Like there are exceptions. I’m not spending that doing finance, smart chain or Cardano or Solana like three, you

 

Bryce Paul  43:41

got it. You got to become a premium member of your bank when they leave the wire is Yeah,

 

Brendan Veihman  43:45

I mean, exactly. So like talk about expensive transfers all that stuff. I mean, yeah, yeah, I feel your man.

 

43:53

And then the only time I have that is when I need to get crypto out of the crypto ecosystem into the Fiat ecosystem, then you pay like 25 or 30 bucks to do that. But even if you’re a wealthy customer, I mean, look at there was this UK example. What was it Nigel Farage, right. I don’t know if you’ve heard of that, you know, he’s not closed. He’s bank closed. They wouldn’t. It’s a person of not interest or something. I don’t know what the terminology was, but they shut him down. He’s been with that bank for, I don’t know, 20 years or something. And all of a sudden, because he didn’t have enough money. I mean, come on the guy’s there or something. And so it’s like, oh, yeah, we shut your bank account down. We are a person of non we don’t want to be associated with you. They cancel them. Right.

 

Bryce Paul  44:40

Right. Easy, you know, I think probably said the wrong thing, right? That was

 

44:45

something bad or he you know, he was pro. He was pro Brexit and so he was the Brexit guy. So we can’t have that guy in here. And but I think the key thing is, what a lot of people don’t realize is, oh, it’s never gonna happen to Me, right? It never happens to me, I’m okay. Nobody’s gonna touch my bank. It’s all safe until it does happen to you. Right? And then you realize how powerless you are. And yeah, I mean, the example that happened, where I realized that especially was during COVID, the million truckers, yeah, Canadian truckers all of a sudden, your money’s taken away from you can’t transfer money to anybody. You can’t buy food, your bank, you know, you can’t purchase that water that you need to survive.

 

Bryce Paul  45:33

Yeah, no, I mean, it’s crazy. And all I can say is, you know, thank God, that we have Bitcoin, which is really, really an antidote to this venom that is coursing through the veins of the global economy, but

 

45:48

but there’s a lot of learnings that we have, I think we have to extract. And so there’s a lot of experience by individuals that how do we extract that and build on the new, not adulterate the new to fit to the old ways, let’s take some of the experiences from the old and bring it into this new world onto these new systems. So that we build a modern future versus corrupting ourselves to fit what the octogenarians would love us to be doing, following their ways, listening to them, instead, come across to us, we’ll find the gems, the innovators on your side, that want to leverage your learnings, and help us build these new systems. That’s how we did it with the internet. That’s how we did it with the mobile revolution. That’s how we’re going to do with the AI of evolution. And we got to do that with the bio revolution as well. So that’s all I’d like to close with. And we need to stay on course, and I love what you guys are doing at the podcast, in terms of trying to educate people about these great new technologies. And if you’re coming, if you’re a university, you’re a grad, you’re graduating, this is the time to innovate and take a job at a crypto company, at a podcast educating about crypto in an AI technology company, pursue that and build your base from there,

 

Bryce Paul  47:18

preach it, brother, and all I gotta say is, you know, of all those revolutions, you know, we like the crypto revolution. That’s why I literally wrote a book I titled it crypto revolution, your guide to the future of money, because this is where we see it going. We’re excited. We’re on the same wavelength. Stephen, man, I guarantee everybody out there, they’re on their edge of their seat, they probably want to hear more from you. Where can people follow you? Where can people stay in touch with? Do any sort of content creation? Can we send them just to true foundation.com? Where yet?

 

47:50

Yeah, I mean, true. foundation.com Follow us on true foundation. I personally have a Twitter account s rust 99 S R Us t nine nine. And we have a I have to I have my own YouTube channel, which I’ve sort of put dormant as I’ve started and uncut Spotify podcast, you can find it called uncut with the head of corporate development at z k sync. And so we do a podcast together. We started off talking about everything. And now we talk a lot about economic activities and ideas and how to incentivize and build new incentive models to yeah, go where we want to go. How do we build incentive mechanisms that take us to the land of crypto,

 

Bryce Paul  48:44

love it, man, I’m gonna add that one to my my podcast rotation. Totally not a plug or anything but z k sync, man, that’s some of the most impressive technology I’ve seen. We’ve been tracking that for a long time. And we’re excited. So, Stephen, yeah, we’ll be we’ll be tuning in and we encourage all of our crypto one on one listeners to go check that out.

 

49:03

Yeah, thank you. Thanks again for having me. Thank you for listening. And, yeah, check out reflation.com And yeah, I look forward to I’m gonna get the book.

 

Bryce Paul  49:12

Yeah, check it out. We’ll send you one. We’ll connect after this and we’ll we’ll send you a book. Thank you, everybody at home listening. Check us out crypto revolution.com. You could get the book too. All right, Stephen. Take care. Thank you.

 

 

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In this episode of Crypto 101 we have Stefan Rust the CEO of Truflation to break down the buzz word everyone is talking about… INFLATION.  Monitoring inflation is important when trading and investing in the markets and Truflation offers a new inflation truth-set to provide reliable financial data for better decision-making. It uses 10 million data points and updates indices daily, offering more comprehensive and up-to-date information compared to traditional indexes updating monthly. Truflation’s secure blockchain infrastructure provides unbiased, verifiable data for the growth and sustainability of business decisions.

 

— TRANSCRIPT —

SPEAKERS

Brendan Veihman, Bryce Paul

 

Bryce Paul  00:09

All righty ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls gather round we got a big episode for you today, this is what I’m going to call the de facto episode on inflation. If you ever were confused about what the heck inflation is, or why it’s here, or how we track it, we’re gonna have really the best guy for you. Not only was he the former CEO of bitcoin.com, Stefan rust is currently the founder and CEO of true flesh. And we have him joining us today on the crypto 101 podcast. We’re gonna bring him on in just a minute. Okay, so hang tight. But first, I want to check in with Brendan V min on the other side of the country, Brendan, how’s your trading going? My

 

Brendan Veihman  00:55

man, hey, the trading starting to go good. I’ve been talking to a bunch of buddies and traditionals they’re actually coming to me and saying, Hey, we’re seeing a lot of fundamental activity between all these ETFs traditionals looking at putting up exchanges, pay pals adding cryptocurrency options, everyone’s starting to get excited again, not just on the trading side with the charts, but also fundamentally in a lot different ways. So you know, as we’ll see in just a second, the future is indeed looking bright, just like Stephens background. Yeah, we’re looking good.

 

Bryce Paul  01:27

Good. Yeah, we’re going up. Your long I take it you’re still long.

 

Brendan Veihman  01:32

Yeah, you know, I’m really optimistic kind of the way that I’ve been looking at it is that maybe the short term is kind of choppy, kind of unknown. Maybe we move up and even down a little bit, but the mid and long term for crypto is really starting to look good. You look at things like the RSI placing consistent higher swing lows on the daily timeframe. And that’s the opposite of what we’ve been seeing from the top of the market where it was putting in lower swing highs from that oversold territory. Now we’re seeing higher swing lows from the oversold territory. So it’s you know, things are starting to really look bright for those longer term outlooks of crypto once again.

 

Bryce Paul  02:09

Absolutely. The technicals are looking good. And I think fundamentally, one of the other you know, big talking points we’re going to hit on today with Stefan, is the Bitcoin halving because if this is an episode on inflation, we got to think about bitcoins monetary policy, and how it is the antidote to the rampant and criminal inflation. That is a hidden tax on wealth and that is exorbitant in countries like Zimbabwe or Lebanon or Syria or Argentina where they have their wealth eradicated on a decade basis. So anyhow, we’re gonna stop ranting, we’re going to shut up, we’re going to introduce our guests because the tension is thick. I can feel everybody in the audience want to hear your voice. Stephen, how are you doing today?

 

02:53

Doing great here. Thanks. Thanks a lot for having me and excited for this podcast and love love preaching to the converted. So

 

Bryce Paul  03:02

absolutely. No, by the way, like, we just gotta say, quick shout out to your your background setup. Tell us a little bit about that. Because that’s just about the coolest look and see that we’ve had here on the crypto 101 podcast, I might have to tell our super producer Tebow to get me some neon in here.

 

03:19

Yeah, so pre COVID. We invested in a little studio, right? So I’ve always believed video is the way forward, you got to build your own media channel, you got to have your own outlets, you got to have your own voice. You don’t want it to adulterated you don’t want it abused. You don’t want to cut short. And so how do we build a studio and one of our guys was very passionate video videographer and wanted to build the studio. And so we painted it all a specific color. And there was at that time and NFT art exhibition. And so I went to that exhibition, and boom, lo and behold, there was the future’s bright, and I’m a big believer, and this is the best time to be alive. There is no greater opportunity for anybody in the world today, if you want to grasp it, right. And if you’re willing to take a bit of risk, and have a bit of an appetite for adventure, this is the time to be alive. We’ve got so many new technologies coming out, we’ve got so much disruption, we’ve got so much change, which all represents a huge opportunity for anybody that really wants to grasp it. And so that’s why I believe the future is bright, and I am super excited to be on this podcast.

 

Brendan Veihman  04:32

Well, I can’t promise you that I won’t steal your background. You know, for the people who are listening in on Spotify, you can’t see the green screen but for those of you that are watching the video version of this, I have this big green screen in the background and all that I’m thinking about is how much I want to just screenshot your background and put it onto the green screen so no promises you might see it pop up in the future. A future episode yeah also.

 

04:55

There I have I have a changing neon lights there that acts Sleep, I can plug into the audio, and it changes based on the oscillation of my Lord. That is definitely a bit overkill. But

 

Bryce Paul  05:12

also Yeah, Brendan, I like that quick shout out to the YouTube channel. We are trying to make our presence known here on YouTube. So if you are on Spotify or Apple check us out. Yeah. But yeah, before we dive in here to true inflation and inflation and having what really got you into crypto, like, how did you become the CEO of bitcoin.com? And you know, why? Why are you here?

 

05:43

I was always a big believer in technology and innovation across technology. I mean, I graduated university, thanks to the internet. I don’t think I would have passed if it weren’t for the Internet gave me a competitive advantage. Mobile came along. I was a mobile entrepreneur built mobile networks and saw the power of Metcalfe’s Law, right the power, the more people connected to a network, the greater the value of the network. And so I then sort of saw that we could do so much more with these little devices on the in our hands, what is possible. And so there was this little software called Java. And Java built a JVM, a virtual machine on these devices. And I joined Sun Microsystems helped them scale JVM two, which was an open source software, scale it to about a $700 million business worldwide, working with handset manufacturers, carriers, etc. But the limitations were always around this walled garden set up and set forth by these mobile carriers until the mobile phone came across that well, the Apple iPhone came across our desks in about 2007. When that happened, all of a sudden data packets on mobile networks were, you know, growing from a 70 kilobyte limitation that the carriers had set all the way up to now you know, 100 gigabytes, a download that you get in the terms of an application itself. And so as I was doing that, I then sort of saw the huge opportunity in these new developers that were going to flourish and grow and build new types of services. And that’s where I built out a developer agency. So I left set up, went back to my entrepreneurial roots, found a developer agency, and we were doing hackathons for some of the world’s leading technology companies 30 a year, anywhere on the planet. And one developer wanted to get paid in Bitcoin. This was around 2012. And so I looked into what what is Bitcoin? I mean, I didn’t know what it was. And then yeah, exactly. Well, now I do, right, yeah. And it was on a Skype call, he was on the other side of the planet. And I figured out I gotta pay this guy somehow. And it was instantaneous. No fees around the world, no middlemen. And that was brilliant, right. And it was on a peer to peer Electronic Cash System. And I was sold from then on in and my hunt for internet and blockchain developers. But at the time, there was only Bitcoin developers. They were all and on, right. I mean, a lot of them were an add on the anonymous sorry, nobody wanted to share their profile necessarily, some did, some didn’t. And we were working with large tech companies, and they all wanted to make sure that the developers was certified. They were identified that it KYC, they had an NDA signed. So we could reveal new SDKs new API’s that were unique to a product that we were about to launch, eg if I’m a tech company, but anyway, yeah. And so I was immediately hooked, grew that. And then I met Roger vere at a conference. And Roger beer had this URL called bitcoin.com, and was looking for somebody to help scale that product. And I said, Yeah, well, you know, and we hit it off. We were having long conversations, we had a follow up further down the road. And one thing led to the next Yeah, I was the CEO of bitcoin.com. We scale we focused on mobile first. So we built out a whole new mobile experience. Education was really important. How do we educate people? How do we on ramp them into Bitcoin? Bitcoin cash Aetherium. And then what were all the other coins available out there? I think avalanche is now it was the next one that we supported. But yeah, the key thing was being able to purchase physical goods and services with your crypto and drive velocity of money. And so instant transactions, we needed to go to a shop to a restaurant and be able to pay instantaneously, no, no fees, no commissions, and changing all of that around. And so we did that and managed to really build out a big network and still active network today. Definitely hugely dampened by this whole COVID shutdowns that took place. And anyway, that’s sort of my entry into crypto and my journey to crypto, we got bitcoin cash up to number four in coin market cap and coin Gecko. And my goal when I saw what was going on in inflation and economic numbers, metrics, the governance provided by the governments was not working. So how do we then bring governance and put that into smart contracts put that onto the blockchain, associated with economic and financial data, so that the governments can focus on the policies, which then get put into governance and smart contracts on these blockchains. And the policy associated with that is adhered to thanks to these distributed node network operators. That was my mission. And I saw that actually being a huge opportunity, possibly even greater than that of just payment rails. And so that’s why we set out to build true inflation.com.

 

Bryce Paul  11:11

That’s awesome.

 

Brendan Veihman  11:14

Yeah, I mean, you mentioned bitcoin cash. Can you tell us more about just like, Were you in charge of launching that? What were the technical reasons behind that launch? Can you just like, elaborate on that?

 

11:26

No, I wasn’t in charge of launching it, it was a fork. It was a fork of Bitcoin Core. So it was a couple of developers that actually went and felt that they could scale is better. The block size was the big debate. There was the block wars, as you may remember, that’s what people were fighting over.

 

Bryce Paul  11:51

It was it was all it was

 

11:53

sacred and block with block a block size, right and segway was approved, with the agreement that the block size was going to be increased subsequent in the next upgrade. And the upgrades at that time, were coming pretty fast and furious. They were, I can’t remember. But they were coming at least once a year, there was an upgrade, and a bitcoin cash, we wanted to go faster. And so there was an upgrade every half year. And so to keep that cadence going, was you know, was holding everybody together. And one of the biggest wallets in the bitcoin cash, you know, sort of arena was the bitcoin.com wallet. And so how were we involved with the bitcoin cash core developers that were working with the miners? To up grade the bitcoin cash software? And at the same time, how do we make sure that all the services that we built up on top of bitcoin cash were compliant, and working in sync with the upgrades that we’ve done if bitcoin cash, but we were, I mean, the innovations that were taking place a bitcoin cash were farm and beyond what Bitcoin Core was doing, which was just resting on the security elements that were developed, and nobody wanted to touch that. And it was destined just to be the gold 2.0, which is great. It serves its function. It’s the backstop for all other currencies. But I think Bitcoin cash, our goal was to build this out as a peer to peer Electronic Cash System. I mean, do you think?

 

Bryce Paul  13:38

Do you think it’s succeeded? Or how do you feel about the project? Now? I’m just curious, because since you’re no longer@bitcoin.com, and

 

13:46

I have a soft spot for bitcoin cash. I mean, I definitely feel we had superfast payment rails, we had amazing fee structures. And we built out an amazing, you know, pos network where you could actually go and purchase goods. And we have I mean,

 

Bryce Paul  14:08

the big point, like point of sale.

 

14:11

Sorry, yes, good, good point. And the Wallet app, I mean, the bitcoin.com app is an amazing app, it’s a great user experience, a lot of information in there, lots of learnings, a great way on a self custodial basis to save your keys, and ultimately your coins that reside and are maintained by the different blockchains. And it’s proof of work. And I think that’s a big difference to proof of stake or pre mined tokens. And I think that’s maybe that also appeals to a bit of a nostalgia in in crypto. But there’s been another fork sense and another fork sense right. So after bitcoin cash with the bsv fork, and then we have the E cash fork after that and Yeah, so I wasn’t definitely a part of the bsv definitely not a big fan of that. But Ecash some of the developers that went to support Ecash. You know, they were pursuing the mission and vision to rewrite Bitcoin and the code base in a modern modular fashion that would allow for more adaptability, and more programmability on top of the Bitcoin protocol. Cool.

 

Brendan Veihman  15:31

So tell us the story of how you transitioned to founding true floatation from working@bitcoin.com.

 

15:39

I mean, that was the government’s show. So we were working tirelessly, we were traveling around the world, I was with Roger and the team of bitcoin.com, we had an amazing team tirelessly 24/7, building out this network with a passion to make a payment network and build it faster than the regulator could keep track of what we were doing. That was working at breakneck speed. But then when ultimately the government shut down the economy and said, You can’t travel anymore, you can’t go to restaurants, you have to wear masks, you have to stay at home. And oh, by the way, we’ll print a whole bunch of money. And oh, we don’t worry, there will be no inflation. No, no, no, no, oh, no, maybe it’s transitory, but we got it covered, we got you covered. You don’t look about it. We’re the grown ups in the room, you’re all little babies, you have no idea what we’re talking about. Because we’re the senior economists that are super educated. And I studied economy in Switzerland. So I was fortunate to have a bit of insight into how all of the money supply and how important that is asset appreciation what that means. And so as a result, I looked under the carpet, you know, it’s like, Oh, my God, what’s going on under here, if they say that, then I realized they printed more money in the last 10 years running up to COVID. And then during that one year, in, whilst COVID was very outbreak, break, the breakout started, then 100 years prior to 2008 combined. So and they’re telling us, oh, don’t worry, no inflation is coming, and you shut down the economy. So there’s no growth in the economy at the same time, you’re providing more money supply into the market. So just by default, I felt something needs it’s going to break. Number two is it was done manually. So they had panels, they were going to the stores, tracking it with iPads manually. Number three, it was updated once a month. Fourth, it was changed. So they go back and work with such stale data, that they have to go back and change six month old reports, based on the data that they’ve received six months later. And so all of those things, I felt this is something that can be improved at least 10x. And if you can improve something 10x Isn’t that our duty to go as an entrepreneur to go and do that improvement. And I sort of looked at Peter TEALS book, and sort of if it’s 10x improvable, and it’s a niche area, you can go after it. And so that’s when I took my hat off and said, I’m gonna sort of switch focus now and go after this.

 

Bryce Paul  18:23

Inflation hat. Yeah, exactly. You know, I’ve been I’ve actually, you know, I see true inflation, get shout shout outs on, you know, other podcasts or even, you know, CNBC sometimes just, you know, people say, hey, let’s contrast CPI, which is the Bureau of Labor Statistics or something like that. And, you know, they’re they’re tracking this, like you said, there’s old stale data. And then they say, but look at truth relations, real time index, it’s, you know, off by a measure of x. So tell us like the difference in like, how does that like that difference come about? Is it just that you’ve got real time? And then if you’ve got real time, you know, why is that not kind of like something that the government has? And how does a private citizen have that access? I guess.

 

19:11

So. Not all the data is publicly available, a lot of the data that we use is publicly available. So private citizens can aggregate that together if they want, maybe not to the depth that we have it and the granularity that we have it and we clean it, but in essence, the government has access to all of this data, it’s just a matter of whether they wanted to go after it and pursue it. We, you know, I

 

Bryce Paul  19:37

can see benefit from the delayed reporting and the revamping and stuff. So it’s like, it’s almost they don’t want this.

 

19:47

I’m not saying that, you know, I mean, I definitely, I mean, I felt that I mean, I feel that I just, I mean there’s definitely you know, there’s I mean, if you look at it, I mean it’s vertically integrated. It’s done by me. It’s like going to You know, you’ve got your exams at school and you know, you’re writing your own score, you know, you’re giving yourself the scorecard, you’re doing the weighting of how the scoring happens. And you’re writing the exam before you even fill it out anyway, right? And so, and then you’re asking yourself, go fill out the exam, it’s sort of feels a bit like cheating. And so we just felt that needed to have an immutable censorship resistant and impartial source of truth. And how do we do that, right, where we’re trying to be as impartial as we possibly can, we’d love to work with the government and help them use accurate data to be more attuned with what is actually happening in the economy, and then work out how we can extract certain elements, but we track 18 million items, we have three price feeds per item that we track, we update it every single day. Not all these datasets are updated daily, because some just it doesn’t matter need to be updated daily. But we update that dataset every single day. And contrast that to 80,000 items on a panel basis. And in some cases, with a nine month time lag. And so the data that we managed to pull together is you know, some in some cases, with some categories, nine months ahead of what more of Labor and Statistics pulls together.

 

Bryce Paul  21:23

That’s pretty crazy. Yeah, it’s almost like as I’m thinking about it, like almost from their perspective, like if they like published real time data on how bad things were like it would just cause more volatility, and the people would just be coming more crazed. So if they lag everything, they can always spin it of like, Hey, that was nine months ago, things are better. Or, hey, that was nine months ago, things are getting worse. We got to do X, Y and Z. But it almost softens the blow to the public. I would think so.

 

21:53

Yeah. And also imagine if you go back and you edit a data point, and then all of a sudden, inflation’s gone from three to 2.5, because you change some of the numbers, nobody reads the 2.5. And nobody cares about the six month old dataset that you’ve just edited. It ends up in page 27. bottom right corner, you know? Yeah, exactly.

 

Bryce Paul  22:15

People just read the headline, right? Exactly. So I know, you mentioned like, money printing, like throughout COVID. Like that was like, you know, the big catalyst to this most recent bout of inflation that not only America, but America is also exporting that inflation, you know, infinitely to other countries actually have it worse America’s the cleanest shirt in the laundry, if you will, when it comes to inflation, but what is it that like, causes inflation? And you know, can you Is there a general statement? Is it literally just money printing by governments? Is there something else afoot?

 

22:53

I mean, in essence, it’s basically the supply of money exceeds the velocity of that money. So the more money in that money, so how quick we exchange money. Got it. So if you know, and there’s there’s there formulas in terms of how that’s calculated, but that the faster more money there is in there. And in order to accelerate the velocity of money, I raised the prices, because I can because you’re sitting on a lot more money, so I can charge prices. So assets start appreciating, so Can some consumer goods and assets start appreciating, so I then take the money out of your, your availability and try to bring that back into circulation?

 

Bryce Paul  23:37

Very interesting.

 

23:39

amounts in simple terms.

 

Bryce Paul  23:40

Yeah, no, that’s yeah, that’s in simple terms. Exactly. And yeah, I think it’s telling that, you know, inflation is, is something that is really affected like us today, you know, higher gas prices, higher grocery prices, higher home prices, and all this stuff. And it’s really scared the government, it scared the Federal Reserve. And so it’s funny, because once inflation, I think November 2021, was the top of the market, interest rates were still pretty much at zero. And the Federal Reserve started talking about inflation, right? And that started getting really, you know, goalkeeper ish about inflation, because a lot of questions that were coming up, and they said, Hey, we’re gonna raise interest rates, and that kind of started to, you know, to fight this inflation that they thought was kind of going to be pesky. And, you know, 12 months later, they’ve got, you know, inflation or they’ve got interest rates 5% higher at a kind of at a velocity that’s never been, you know, we’ve never seen that rate of change of the federal funds rate. So it was pretty, pretty unprecedented. And it caused a an unprecedented collapse in the value of bonds and stocks. Right. And so I guess, like, the thing I think about my question is, the goal was always to get inflation back down to the Feds target of like 2% which is some arbitrary target, maybe we could talk more about how the Fed ever even came up with that 2% arbitrary inflation number, but they have it. And that’s their goal, get back down to it. And we were as high as like 9% at one point. And now true fallacious showing that we’re kind of back to like 2%, or maybe like two and a half percent ish. CPI saying we’re at 3.2. What is it going to take for Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, to stop hiking interest rates or to start cutting interest rates? Sorry, that was a big setup for kind of a one line question.

 

25:34

Yeah, I mean, Jerome Powell, and the central banks around the world have this arbitrary number that they can’t justify why 2% is the magical number. They just believe it’s 2%. And, you know, I’m sort of more in the camp of Bill Ackman where we just don’t, I mean, us a translation, we just don’t believe it’s a realistic goal, to aim for 2% inflation. You know, given that we’re in a world where we’re trying to after COVID, we learned a lot we want to onshore or near shore, a lot of production, a lot of manufacturing, we want to be self sustaining, in terms of food supply, energy supply, that all costs money, that takes time to build out and develop. And as a result, it’s going to require capital investment, capital investment at 5%, inflation at 5%. Interest rate, costs money, and takes time. And as in that interim time period, there’s going to be a limited supply, the supply chains aren’t working, 100%, etc, etc. And so therefore, we’re ultimately going to hit a average number of what we think is anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5%. That’s sort of a realistic inflation number to hit on an annual basis. Long term for the longer term. Yeah,

 

Bryce Paul  26:59

it’s like kind of the Sustainable inflation, right? What does that mean, for like, our dollar or for our assets? We’re, what does it imply? I should say,

 

27:07

I mean, it means that your assets will appreciate a little bit, you know, a little bit more. So I mean, whether you whether we notice our assets going from 2%, to 3%, or more one, that 1%, I don’t think 90% of the population will really notice a big difference. I think at the bigger magnitude level, it might make a significant have a bigger impact. However, it just just economically, I think goods will become more expensive, the cost of innovation will become more expensive. I cannot build one huge chip manufacturer, and supply all of the equipment from that single source, where I have economies of scale, I can have all of my r&d, go to feed and bring down the unit cost of anything I build off the back of that r&d. Now, I’m going to have five companies in five different geographies, all doing the same sort of thing, and building similar equivalent elements that are all going to have different factories, they’re not going to be able to leverage the r&d spent into unit costs that are going to scale as big as as that maybe that will happen again, over time, but due to supply chain issues due to jurisdictional issues, legal issues, national concerns, these things won’t roll out in that favor. And so goods are just going to be getting a little bit more expensive, every single year again. And by the way, inflation, right. So today, we have two and a half percent inflation. Bear in mind, a year ago, today, we had 12% inflation. So if you combine two years together, that’s 15% inflation. So the cost of your eggs are 15% more, maybe you actually read more, because eggs might be a unique category, but but your eggs in on average, everything you spend is 15% more expensive, and you feel that in your overall household expenditure. And that’s what we wanted to and we resonated with that. And I think that’s when our timing to market was perfect with the accurate reflection of what people were feeling at the storefronts.

 

Bryce Paul  29:21

It’s incredible. Now, just just a comment, what you described really makes me feel like it’s structural, right? It’s structural inflation that is now kind of embedded in what was once this really globally connected citizenry, this whole you know, friendly, sort of world where whatever NAFTA or whatever, like, I don’t know if that’s the right thing, but like all the globalization and stuff and now COVID And the tensions in Russia and communism, kind of whatever on the rise, like it’s like really started to affect supply chains, which is, you know, causing structure All inflation. So you laid it out, you know, very, very presently. And I’ve never really thought about it that way. But I feel like you know, Brennan, do you feel like this kind of comes into bitcoin in some way? Do you think this relates?

 

Brendan Veihman  30:13

Yeah, you know, I think it does. And with the halving coming up, people have a lot of questions like, how will this tie into crypto?

 

30:24

Yeah, I mean, you know, crypto, a lot of the currencies in crypto have an emission schedule, right? Even Bitcoin they have an emission schedule, you know, there’s a havening Coming, coming. And when the havening comes, then you know, that the rewards drops by 50%. Right? And what does that mean, there’s a less supply coming into the market. And that means that, you know, ultimately inflation drops, right. And so it gives time for consumption. But you know, the plant emissions coming into the market and most tokens Aetherium has their their I can’t remember the name of the site, they have a site where you can go and see how much is actually being burned? Or how much is new believe ultrasound money. Exactly. That’s it, ultrasound money. Thank you, that’s perfect. So check that out, right, you can actually see alive you have that transparency, how much money is being minted, and how much is being burned. So you actually see the central bank at work, if you will, and the central bank being a network of node operators, and a lot of other currencies, they have an emission schedule, you know, you could argue that it’s maybe too fast, it’s in five years, you emit all of your coins. I think, actually, in this day and age, given how many different currencies are out there, how many different blockchains are out there before crypto really picks up that five years is maybe a bit too aggressive, we should extend that emission schedule. However, Treasury can step in and just hold back it can burn it can can add it to liquidity or do whatever it wants. But there you have an element of management of inflation. And you know, you see countries we were talking about it earlier, Turkey, Argentina, right? What was this happened that just happened just the other day, or today, the yesterday the Argentinian you know, there was a, an elected candidate elect, who is now going to be the prime minister of Argentina, who’s super pro Bitcoin hates central banks, and wants to see Bitcoin as the means of money and Aetherium to by the way, when he talks about this being the means of exchange, why was money created, money was created for people to exchange goods and services, and simplify that exchange of goods and services by giving it a value. And that value was going to be accepted as a benchmark that people could accept and immediately do a great trade and would reduce friction and increase the velocity of trade. And money is lost that since central banks have taken over monies lost, that it’s now super hard to get access to your money, you have to do KYC, Kyp, if you want to send somebody more than $200 Oh, you have to say, Why are you giving that money? Person money? I mean, it’s like, why do I need to do all of that I’ve hard earned money. And you know, that’s the purpose of money. And it limits trade means reduces growth, loses prosperity, and reduces hope in the population. And we don’t want to hurt we want to live in a hopeful environment where we’re super excited, because the future is bright.

 

Brendan Veihman  33:33

Yeah, yeah. And I mean, we’ve seen crypto companies. I mean, look at Coinbase look at by Nance recently, like they’ve been really under fire, especially when it comes to the SEC. I mean, Bryce, would you agree speaking of Hope list?

 

33:47

Yeah, I mean, what I mean, they’ve, they’ve everything Coinbase done everything. In the filing process. They spent millions, they spent months if not years, filing the documentation, getting accountant, auditors, lawyers, ready and preparing all of these documents that they would then submit to the SEC to get the final stamp of approval, which you could argue what was the productivity gains of all of those documents of all of those lawyers, accountants, auditors, etc. And only to then find out once they’re listed a year later, up your bad file, you know, I’m suing you even though incremental change of their business. I’d argue maybe you could argue that maybe 10 20% of their business has changed. In terms of since the IRS filings they would argue very little has changed nothing substantial. Yeah, so it’s super sad to see why is the SEC doing this and why are the regulators not allowing innovation not allowing growth, not facilitating, and, yeah, you know, yeah, I don’t know providing liquidity to providing flu. It led to this innovation and this new opportunity.

 

Brendan Veihman  35:04

You know, I think that’s the most ironic and comical part about all of this is that the very group that approved Coinbase to go as a publicly traded company is now this same group saying, You guys aren’t regulated when they were the ones who gave Coinbase the all clear saying that they were regulated in the first place. It just, it seems like an oxymoron.

 

Bryce Paul  35:27

Very Kafka esque.

 

35:30

Very, I mean, and I think, you know, I mean, what they’re doing to XRP, the choke, point, 2.0. There’s definitely a greater gameplan here. And it’s really to try and control you know, and the funny thing is, finance had the B USD, which was the stable coin, pegged to the US dollar, by the way, and managed not by themselves, but by Pax us. And PayPal just announced the launch of their stable coin, right? And guess who that’s managed by Paxos?

 

Bryce Paul  36:04

Right? That’s what I thought was ironic.

 

36:07

That’s legit, but the other ones not legit. I mean, why wouldn’t you want to be the guardian of the world of all stable coins, all digital currencies, that would be such a great position to be in. And given, you know, the US dollar is 87% of worldwide trade is denominated in US dollar, it would be such a great position to be the guardian of such an opportunity, and have digital currencies built off the US dollar even more. So.

 

Bryce Paul  36:38

Yeah, it’s, it’s just nuts. And I guess my question is like, does this leave some significant chinks in the armor of America’s you know, innovation and sort of technological development chops? Does it leave a chink in that armor and maybe give opportunity to competitive countries?

 

36:57

Oh, definitely opens the window. Right. I mean, I mean, Hong Kong

 

Bryce Paul  37:00

is launching Hong Kong.

 

37:03

Dubai is booming. Everybody’s going to Dubai. Right. All the cities that are you look at Ireland is a big hub that’s booming. You’ve got Lisbon that’s booming. You got all these little countries that are booming, but nothing to the I mean, I just think it’s it’s a administration issue. Right. It’s an administration issue. I think when, you know, the powers change in a couple year in a year’s time, you know, what will it look like? Then will the landscape be very different next year, we’re up for elections? You know, let’s see how the landscape changes, right? I mean, and I think we can expect to see some significant changes. And the direction will be much more, hopefully, will be much more innovative, and will be much more, the incentives will be structured to reward the innovators and the entrepreneurs. And the people pursuing growth versus today. It rewards the bureaucrats, the lawyers, the accountants, and the blocking of, you know, the not the blocking, necessarily, but building out toll toll booths along the way, and not letting cars drive on the highways, and the cars being the new companies and startups. And

 

Brendan Veihman  38:22

so as we move into the final quarter of this year, what is your prediction for rate cuts, and the talks of pivots are all over the place? I mean, obviously, no one has a crystal ball. We can’t hold out this magical ball and say this is what’s going to happen. But we at least have an idea or an expectation of what could be to come.

 

38:44

I mean, yeah, I think I don’t think we’ll see an interest rate cut. That’s for sure. If anything, we’re gonna see rate hikes. I think in September, we’ll see the interest rates continue to go up by how much I think that’s that’s a bigger debate. But I think you will see a rise you’ve already seen 3.2% interest rate inflation bump from the previous month. And I think in September we’ll see another little bump. You know, people have been on holiday they’ve been rich revenge, traveling, revenge

 

Brendan Veihman  39:19

events traveling.

 

39:23

Revenge spending is whether what we call it Yeah. Yeah, so I think that will result in an increase hospital hotel sorry, non hospitals, hotels, restaurants have seen higher than usual or pre COVID. booking status is the rates are higher than they were during the pre COVID environment. Airlines are full. could just go to the airports I mean, you can see it you can feel it. It’s busy. People are out and about and you And why would we worry, you know, unemployment is super low. And so good quality jobs are going to start, you know, are going to start demanding, or candidates for good high quality jobs are gonna start demanding more pay. And what does that look like? How does that balance it out? Factories are going to start deploying robotics if I’m building a new factory onshoring car manufacturing in the US again? Am I going to hire a lot of people? Or am I going to install robots that pay you know that that have an ROI of nine months? You have no

 

Bryce Paul  40:41

breaks? No lunch breaks?

 

40:43

Exactly, exactly. Seven I don’t want to go back to a factory work in a factory. I’m enjoying my you know, my beautiful, you know, neon lights in the background? air conditioned environment and a nice microphone and behind the computer screen.

 

Bryce Paul  41:03

Yeah, no, I love it. No, I’m not going back to the factory. I ain’t going back. But no, no, it also just, you know, kind of enclosing, you know, inflation, you know, probably like I like your hot take of it’s probably going to run a little hotter for a little longer, probably going to cause interest rates to, you know, continue to remain higher for longer. And, you know, asset prices will continue to probably rise. I like it and kind of just, you know, closing question just in light of all this. Like we said, inflation kind of being all screwy. It’s the perfect backdrop for the Bitcoin halving. Do you have any, you know, which kind of flies in the face of all this inflation? Do you have any sort of like projections, timelines, price points, hot takes on the price of BTC. So I,

 

41:52

I mean, I don’t have I won’t give you a price on that. I mean, there’s so many predictions out there, or the only thing is, I will tell you that I am 99% of my asset base is in crypto. There we go. And I believe in sound money, I believe in transparent money, censorship resistant, and actually, it’s even more user friendly to use a self custodial wallet than it is to use a bank account and try to send money to somebody on the other end of the continent, on the other end of the country, and someone on the other end of the world.

 

Bryce Paul  42:30

Seriously, no, I completely, I completely agree. I always call like money, or crypto money at the speed of life. Because sometimes, you know, it’s, you know, in different countries sending money that gets caught different bank branches, it gets stopped at the border or whatever, right, your bank throttles it. And sometimes you really need a reliable, you know, you need reliable funds, right? And so that’s what crypto is.

 

42:59

And you want to be able to take it with you, right, that portability element, you’re gonna carry a logs of gold with you.

 

Brendan Veihman  43:07

And I just want to agree to that, because people come and sometimes they complain, they go, oh, you know, crypto can be expensive to send. I had to go and do a wire transfer yesterday to get a house. And they told me it was gonna cost 30 bucks, like talk about expensive, I’m not I’m not spending 30 bucks on a Bitcoin transfer. I’m not even spending that when a theory is hot. And gas fees are private or high. I’m not spending 30 bucks on a transfer, like a lot of the time. Like there are exceptions. I’m not spending that doing finance, smart chain or Cardano or Solana like three, you

 

Bryce Paul  43:41

got it. You got to become a premium member of your bank when they leave the wire is Yeah,

 

Brendan Veihman  43:45

I mean, exactly. So like talk about expensive transfers all that stuff. I mean, yeah, yeah, I feel your man.

 

43:53

And then the only time I have that is when I need to get crypto out of the crypto ecosystem into the Fiat ecosystem, then you pay like 25 or 30 bucks to do that. But even if you’re a wealthy customer, I mean, look at there was this UK example. What was it Nigel Farage, right. I don’t know if you’ve heard of that, you know, he’s not closed. He’s bank closed. They wouldn’t. It’s a person of not interest or something. I don’t know what the terminology was, but they shut him down. He’s been with that bank for, I don’t know, 20 years or something. And all of a sudden, because he didn’t have enough money. I mean, come on the guy’s there or something. And so it’s like, oh, yeah, we shut your bank account down. We are a person of non we don’t want to be associated with you. They cancel them. Right.

 

Bryce Paul  44:40

Right. Easy, you know, I think probably said the wrong thing, right? That was

 

44:45

something bad or he you know, he was pro. He was pro Brexit and so he was the Brexit guy. So we can’t have that guy in here. And but I think the key thing is, what a lot of people don’t realize is, oh, it’s never gonna happen to Me, right? It never happens to me, I’m okay. Nobody’s gonna touch my bank. It’s all safe until it does happen to you. Right? And then you realize how powerless you are. And yeah, I mean, the example that happened, where I realized that especially was during COVID, the million truckers, yeah, Canadian truckers all of a sudden, your money’s taken away from you can’t transfer money to anybody. You can’t buy food, your bank, you know, you can’t purchase that water that you need to survive.

 

Bryce Paul  45:33

Yeah, no, I mean, it’s crazy. And all I can say is, you know, thank God, that we have Bitcoin, which is really, really an antidote to this venom that is coursing through the veins of the global economy, but

 

45:48

but there’s a lot of learnings that we have, I think we have to extract. And so there’s a lot of experience by individuals that how do we extract that and build on the new, not adulterate the new to fit to the old ways, let’s take some of the experiences from the old and bring it into this new world onto these new systems. So that we build a modern future versus corrupting ourselves to fit what the octogenarians would love us to be doing, following their ways, listening to them, instead, come across to us, we’ll find the gems, the innovators on your side, that want to leverage your learnings, and help us build these new systems. That’s how we did it with the internet. That’s how we did it with the mobile revolution. That’s how we’re going to do with the AI of evolution. And we got to do that with the bio revolution as well. So that’s all I’d like to close with. And we need to stay on course, and I love what you guys are doing at the podcast, in terms of trying to educate people about these great new technologies. And if you’re coming, if you’re a university, you’re a grad, you’re graduating, this is the time to innovate and take a job at a crypto company, at a podcast educating about crypto in an AI technology company, pursue that and build your base from there,

 

Bryce Paul  47:18

preach it, brother, and all I gotta say is, you know, of all those revolutions, you know, we like the crypto revolution. That’s why I literally wrote a book I titled it crypto revolution, your guide to the future of money, because this is where we see it going. We’re excited. We’re on the same wavelength. Stephen, man, I guarantee everybody out there, they’re on their edge of their seat, they probably want to hear more from you. Where can people follow you? Where can people stay in touch with? Do any sort of content creation? Can we send them just to true foundation.com? Where yet?

 

47:50

Yeah, I mean, true. foundation.com Follow us on true foundation. I personally have a Twitter account s rust 99 S R Us t nine nine. And we have a I have to I have my own YouTube channel, which I’ve sort of put dormant as I’ve started and uncut Spotify podcast, you can find it called uncut with the head of corporate development at z k sync. And so we do a podcast together. We started off talking about everything. And now we talk a lot about economic activities and ideas and how to incentivize and build new incentive models to yeah, go where we want to go. How do we build incentive mechanisms that take us to the land of crypto,

 

Bryce Paul  48:44

love it, man, I’m gonna add that one to my my podcast rotation. Totally not a plug or anything but z k sync, man, that’s some of the most impressive technology I’ve seen. We’ve been tracking that for a long time. And we’re excited. So, Stephen, yeah, we’ll be we’ll be tuning in and we encourage all of our crypto one on one listeners to go check that out.

 

49:03

Yeah, thank you. Thanks again for having me. Thank you for listening. And, yeah, check out reflation.com And yeah, I look forward to I’m gonna get the book.

 

Bryce Paul  49:12

Yeah, check it out. We’ll send you one. We’ll connect after this and we’ll we’ll send you a book. Thank you, everybody at home listening. Check us out crypto revolution.com. You could get the book too. All right, Stephen. Take care. Thank you.

 

 

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